Tendência temporal da mortalidade por doenças respiratórias crônicas das vias aéreas inferiores em Uberlândia-MG, 2015–2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36557/2674-8169.2026v8n4p594-613Keywords:
mortality, ; chronic respiratory diseases, COPD, temporal trend, Joinpoint.Abstract
Introduction: Chronic diseases of the lower airways, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema, and chronic bronchitis, are major causes of morbidity and mortality and are strongly associated with population aging and social determinants of health. Temporal trend analysis allows the identification of changes in mortality patterns and structural shifts in the risk of death.
Objective: To analyze temporal trends in mortality from chronic lower airway diseases (ICD-10 J40–J47) in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2015 to 2024, and to describe the sociodemographic profile of deaths and their distribution by ICD-10 category.
Methods: Ecological time-series study using secondary data from the Mortality Information System (SIM/DATASUS). Deaths of residents with underlying cause classified as ICD-10 J40–J47 were included. Mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 inhabitants using IBGE population estimates. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression to estimate Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC), with 95% confidence intervals, for the overall series and stratified by sex.
Results: A total of 1,500 deaths were recorded. Mortality predominated among males (52.6%) and older adults, especially those aged 80 years or more (43.9%). Most individuals were White (62.6%), had 4–7 years of schooling (42.8%), and died in hospital settings (52.3%). ICD-10 category J44 (other chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases) accounted for 89.2% of deaths. Joinpoint analysis identified an inflection point in 2021, with a significant decreasing trend from 2015 to 2021 followed by a significant increase through 2024. The reversal in trend was mainly driven by male mortality, whereas the female trend remained statistically stable.
Conclusion: A recent structural change in mortality trends from chronic lower airway diseases was observed after 2021, with a shift from decline to increase, predominantly among men. COPD was the leading cause of death within this group. Mortality concentrated in older adults with lower educational levels, highlighting the need for strengthened prevention and long-term management strategies.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Caio Cartaxo Dias Pereira, Hans de Campos Mello Soffner, João Pedro Camargos Silvestre, João Victor Faria Gondim, João Victor Araujo Marques Nascimento, Daniel Siran de Jesus Alves, Victor Luiz Barbosa Gomes Furlan, Maria Luiza Queiroz Silva , Guilherme Isaias de Paula, Marcelo Araújo Zaccaro Ferreira, Juliana Mota Pereira, Rosangela Martins Araújo, Karina do Valle Marques
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