Temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Zika virus infections in the northeast between 2016 and 2024: an ecological study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36557/2674-8169.2025v7n7p573-586Keywords:
Zika Virus, Incidence, Northeast, Epidemiological monitoring, ecological studyAbstract
INTRODUCTION: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has emerged as a major public health problem in Northeastern Brazil since 2015, requiring analysis of its temporal and spatial distribution. OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of ZIKV incidence rates in the Federative Units of the region between 2016 and 2024. METHODOLOGY: Descriptive ecological study with secondary data from SINAN/DATASUS notifications and population estimates from IBGE. Annual case rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated and temporal trend graphs and choropleth maps were generated to characterize spatial patterns. RESULTS: A peak incidence was observed in 2016, with the highest magnitude in Bahia (395.99 cases/100,000 inhab.), followed by a sharp decline in 2017 and low stabilization until 2020. Between 2021 and 2022, there was a localized reemergence in Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte (234.78 cases/100,000 inhab.) and Pernambuco. From 2023 to 2024, the spatial distribution became heterogeneous, with alternating specific outbreaks in different states. DISCUSSION: The oscillating dynamics indicate the influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors and the effectiveness of vector control actions, suggesting differentiated regional vulnerabilities. CONCLUSION: Continuous and targeted surveillance, combined with the strengthening of prevention strategies and the use of predictive models integrating climatic and social variables, is essential to reduce ZIKV transmission in the Northeast.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Tarcisio Gomes Leite, João Pedro Alves Nascimento, Gabriel Brenno Costa Barreto Cardoso, Isabela Malheiros Teixeira de Oliveira , Vinicius Cardoso Castro, Ana Carla Castro Duca, Laura Benevides Nascimento , Alessandra Isabella Coelho Santos Monteiro, Augusto César Fernandes Ribeiro
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