COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PROFILE OF DENGUE CASES IN BRAZIL DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2023 AND 2024: AN ECOLOGICAL STUDY

Abstract

Dengue is an arbovirus caused by a Flavivirus with four serotypes identified in Brazil – DEN1, DEN2, DEN3 and DEN4 – the first being the most explosive, causing large epidemics in the short term and reaching thousands of people quickly. This research focuses on the retrospective analysis of epidemiological data on dengue in Brazil during the first quarter of 2023 and 2024. As it is a tropical country with a hot and humid climate, Brazil has an environment conducive to the proliferation of the dengue vector. Currently, everything indicates that Brazil is facing the worst dengue epidemic in history, since different states and municipalities have declared a state of emergency due to the increase in the number of cases of the disease compared to the same period of the previous year. To conduct this study, we used data on dengue case notifications recorded by the national epidemiological surveillance systems (SINAN), made available by the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS). These data included information on the total number of dengue cases reported, distributed by geographic region, age group, race, sex, and final classification of the disease (dengue, dengue with warning signs, severe dengue, among others). The methodology includes the tabulation and detailed analysis of the reported cases, allowing an in-depth understanding of the distribution of the disease in the different Brazilian regions in the years 2023 and 2024. The proportions of dengue cases in relation to the total notifications were calculated, as well as the proportions of severe cases and deaths in relation to the total number of confirmed cases. The main objective of this study is to map and compare the evolution of dengue in Brazil, identify seasonal and geographic patterns, and detect possible factors that influenced the increase in cases over the studied period. The study reinforces the importance of continuous epidemiological surveillance of dengue and the implementation of integrated public health measures to control the spread of the disease and protect the health of the Brazilian population.